Statistics Predict Hour, Day Drivers Most Likely to be in Accidents

If you’re one of the tens of thousands of drivers traveling through the East Mason Street/Interstate 43 area each day, you may want to take note.

Green Bay police say it’s one of the top five places on the city’s east side officers are called most.

Police are studying the past to predict the future, down to the hour and day, looking at ways to prevent problems and reduce calls for service there.

You’d probably laugh if someone said they could tell you when a reckless driver complaint or accident would happen at the east-side intersection.

Police probably would, too, except statistics show otherwise. 

“We were able to determine that, based on the time and location and with some statistics, we were able to predict, on a given day, the probability of an accident or reckless driver or assist of motorist occurring,” says Lt. Kevin Warych.

As police noticed a steady number of calls coming to the Mason- I-43 intersection, averaging 300 a year for the last five, Warych started crunching numbers.

“In 2013, there were 44 reckless driver complaints at that intersection or around that intersection,” he says, pointing to several pages of charts and graphs.

He looked at the 1,772 calls there from 2009 through Wednesday and when they were happening. The vast majority came from traffic:

  • 568 for assisting motorists with broken down cars
  • 382 for accidents
  • 262 for reckless drivers

“The likelihood or probability of an accident occurring at this intersection is greater in the early afternoon hours between three and five pm,” he says, studying statistics from just the last year.

 Then police went further, with stats showing the probability of getting into an accident is highest on Tuesdays at 5 pm.

Why? They don’t yet know.

Statistics also predict most reckless drivers use the intersection on Fridays and Sundays.

“We’re in the stage of… we’ve got the data. We’ve got statistics that say what we can and where we should deploy our resources, now we just have to develop our strategies,” explains Warych.

But he says it’s not as simple as putting more officers there at those times.

“We have to look at other resources, whether that would be other city departments, the traffic engineers, Department of Transportation, and one of the biggest things here is education,” Warych says.

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